Depending on how you chose to parse the statistics, the chances of a 40-to-70-meter asteroid hitting earth on December 22, 2032 are staggering 162% higher than what was predicted last month.
Is it time to plan your place in the nearest cave?
Not quite.
In fact, the actual chance of the asteroid, named 2024 YR4, hitting earth is now 3.1%, in other words, a 1 in 32 odds of impact. Better put, there’s a 96.9% chance it will miss earth entirely.
But here is both an interesting and concerning factoid about this asteroid.
Based on new data from satellite observations, the chances of impact have been continually increasing. With all previous asteroids, as new data was compiled, the chances of impact have almost always been lowered. Until this one. A month ago, the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) predicted a 1.3% chance of 2024 YR4’s impact; last week, 2.6%; the week before, 2.2%.
Assuming it truly does hit earth, is it an extinction level event?
Far from it!
Scientists use the Torino Impact Hazard Scale to quantify an asteroid’s potential risk. CNEOS has categorized this asteroid as a Level 3 (out of 10 Levels), which means it “merits attention by astronomers” who calculate a “1% or greater chance of (earth) collision capable of localized destruction.” An asteroid rated Level 10 is an extinction level collision.
Better still, based on historical study, it is more likely that new telescopic observations will lead to a re-assessment, which would drop the estimated Torino Level to 0.
Yeah, but what if?
SpaceWeather.com compares 2024 YR4‘s size to the Tunguska event, which leveled a forest of 80-million trees in Russia in 1908. The estimates of energy released was similar to between 3-30 megatons of TNT. So if it does hit, the consequence to those in that localized area (predicted to be somewhere in Asia) could be devastating. However, it’s not likely to negatively affect anyone outside this area.
Stay tuned.